Insights into Dengue Fever Spread: The Role of Weather
A research team led by Professor Kim Jae Kyoung from KAIST, along with the Biomedical Mathematics Group at the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), has made significant advancements in understanding how weather impacts the spread of dengue fever. Their comprehensive study identifies temperature and rainfall as crucial factors contributing to the alarming increase in dengue cases globally and proposes actionable strategies to mitigate the disease’s effects.
The Growing Threat of Dengue Fever
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease, is emerging as a major public health concern. The World Health Organization reported a staggering increase in dengue cases from 4.1 million in 2023 to over 10.6 million in 2024 in North and South America, marking the highest number of cases ever recorded. While the influence of climatic factors on dengue transmission is acknowledged, the complex interplay between these factors remains poorly understood. Conflicting findings in previous studies highlight the need for more nuanced analysis; some assert that rainfall increases dengue transmission, while others argue it suppresses it.
Addressing the Complexity: GOBI Framework
The IBS research team hypothesized that these contradictory findings arise from conventional methods that typically focus on linear relationships or treat climatic effects as independent. To overcome these limitations, they employed GOBI (General ODE-Based Inference), a new causal inference framework developed in 2023 by the IBS group. This advanced method accounts for both nonlinear effects and interactions between climatic factors, allowing for a more comprehensive exploration of the relationship between weather conditions and dengue incidence.
Regional Variations in Dengue Dynamics
The study analyzed 16 regions in the Philippines, chosen for their varied climatic conditions, to investigate the joint effects of temperature and rainfall on dengue dynamics. The findings revealed distinct dengue regulation patterns correlated with temperature and rainfall interactions. Notably, rising temperatures consistently elevated dengue incidence across all studied regions. In contrast, the impact of rainfall varied geographically; in eastern areas, increased rainfall correlated with higher dengue rates, whereas in the west, it had a suppressive effect.
The Critical Influence of Dry Season Length
A significant finding of the study was the pivotal role of dry season length in explaining the contradictory effects of rainfall on dengue transmission. In regions with low variability in dry season length, rainfall tended to reduce stagnant water, decreasing mosquito breeding sites and subsequently suppressing dengue outbreaks. Conversely, in high-variability areas, sporadic rainfall created new breeding sites, leading to increased mosquito populations and greater incidence of dengue cases. This previously overlooked factor presents a novel perspective on the relationship between rainfall and dengue dynamics.
Validation of Findings in Puerto Rico
To confirm the study’s findings, the research team extended their analysis to Puerto Rico, examining municipalities with differing climatic zones, such as San Juan, Adjuntas, and Ponce. The observed dengue regulation patterns mirrored those found in the Philippines, reinforcing the study’s credibility and indicating the findings may be applicable in other regions.
Implications for Dengue Intervention Strategies
The research outcomes have practical implications for optimizing dengue intervention strategies. In low-variation regions, the natural flushing effect during the rainy season may allow for reduced intervention efforts, freeing resources for other public health priorities. Conversely, regions with high variation necessitate ongoing intervention to combat mosquito breeding exacerbated by sporadic rainfall. The study further emphasizes the importance of monitoring dry season length as a predictive tool for dengue outbreaks, allowing public health agencies to allocate resources more effectively.
Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/02/250212151147.htm
- Original Story:
- Story By:
- Date:
- Please Support: